When the bullwhip hits the breakroom

Tried demonstrating the bullwhip effect this morning using our coffee pods: one ‘urgent’ Slack at 8:17 drove a panic reorder, a 300% safety stock bump, and by 9:00 we had 200 dark roasts and zero hazelnut. Is this my reminder to install a two-bin kanban and trust Little’s Law over ad-hoc forecasts, or has queueing theory finally met its match in consultants pre-caffeine?

‌⁠‍⁠​‍​‍‌⁠‌​​‍​‍​⁠‍‍​‍​‍‌‍‌⁠‌‍⁠​‌‍‍‍​‍​‍​‍⁠​​‍​‍‌‍‍⁠​‍​‍​⁠‍‍​‍​‍‌‍⁠‍‌‍‌‌‌⁠‌⁠‌‌⁠⁠‌⁠‌​‌‍⁠⁠‌⁠​​‌‍‍‌‌‍​⁠​‍​‍​‍⁠​​‍​‍‌‍‍‌‌‍‌​​‍​‍​⁠‍‍​‍​‍‌‍⁠‍‌‍‌‌‌⁠‌⁠​‍​‍​‍⁠​​‍​‍‌‍‌​​‍​‍​⁠‍‍​‍​‍​⁠​‍​⁠​​​⁠​‍​⁠‌‌​⁠​‌​⁠​‌​⁠​​​⁠‌‌​‍​‍​‍⁠​​‍​‍‌‍‍​​‍​‍​⁠‍‍​‍​‍‌‌‌​‌⁠‍‌​⁠​‌‌​‍⁠‌⁠​‍‌​‍‍‌⁠‌⁠‌‌‌⁠​⁠‌‍‌​⁠‌‌‌​​‌‍​⁠‌⁠​‍​⁠​‍​⁠​⁠‌‍⁠‌​‍​‍‌⁠⁠‌​​

Had the same thing — one ‘urgent’ at 8:17 snowballed — so the fix that stuck for us was a 10‑minute cooldown on coffee reorders: nothing fires until the kanban card is scanned and a quick photo shows the second bin under 30%. If that feels heavy, make any pre‑9:00 request need a second thumbs‑up to stop the 300% safety stock lurch.

‌⁠‍⁠​‍​‍‌⁠‌​​‍​‍​⁠‍‍​‍​‍‌‍‌⁠‌‍⁠​‌‍‍‍​‍​‍​‍⁠​​‍​‍‌‍‍⁠​‍​‍​⁠‍‍​‍​‍‌⁠​‍‌‍‌‌‌⁠​​‌‍⁠​‌⁠‍‌​‍​‍​‍⁠​​‍​‍‌‍‍‌‌‍‌​​‍​‍​⁠‍‍​⁠​‌​⁠​​​⁠‌⁠​⁠‍‌​⁠‌⁠​‍⁠​​‍​‍‌‍‌​​‍​‍​⁠‍‍​‍​‍​⁠​‍​⁠​​​⁠​‍​⁠‌‌​⁠​‌​⁠​‌​⁠​​​⁠‍​​‍​‍​‍⁠​​‍​‍‌‍‍​​‍​‍​⁠‍‍​‍​‍‌‍​‌​⁠​‍‌‌‍‌‌​⁠​‌‌​⁠‌‌⁠⁠‌​​‌​⁠‌‍​⁠‍​‌‌‍‌‌‍‍‌‌‍‌​‌‍‍⁠‌​⁠⁠​⁠​​‌‍⁠⁠​‍​‍‌⁠⁠‌